ABSTRACT
The state government of Sarawak with the help of the Sarawak Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) has continuously made the updated information on the state COVID-19 situation and its ensuing control measures available to general public in the form of daily press statements. However, these statements are merely providing textual information on daily basis though the data are in fact rich in temporal and spatial properties. Since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, spatiotemporal analysis becomes the key element to better understand the spread of COVID-19 in various spatial levels worldwide. Hence, there is an urgent need to convert this textual information into more valuable insights by applying geo-visualization techniques and geospatial statistics. The paper demonstrates the prospect of retrieving geospatial data from publicly available document to locate, map and analyze the spread of COVID-19 up to division level of Sarawak. Specifically, map visualization and geospatial statistical analysis are performed for the list of exposed locations, which are indeed locations visited by COVID-19 patients prior to being tested positive in Kuching division, using open-source geospatial software QGIS. It is found that these exposed locations concentrate on the build-up areas in the division and are in south-west to north-east direction of the center of Kuching in September and October 2021. Despite the number of exposed locations published is relatively small compared to the number of confirmed cases reported, both are nearly strongly correlated. The insights gained from such geospatial analysis may assist the local public health authorities to impose applicable disease control interventions at division level. © 2023 Horizon Research Publishing. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 outbreak was well-controlled in the state of Sarawak, Malaysia in year 2020. A surge in positive cases started in January 2021 and affected all districts including the rural areas which have relatively limited health facilities. Hence, we investigated the spatial patterns of COVID-19 spreading at district level for the first 16 epidemiological weeks of 2021 by spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial panel regression model. The results show that there exists weak positive spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Having said that, the spatial cluster of high values in both weekly rate of confirmed cases and its spatial lag emerged in the center part of Sarawak in the seventh epidemiological week. Six other districts were identified as high potential for spill overing the disease to its neighbouring districts. Among the six spatial panel regression models constructed, the spatial autoregressive model which includes the spatial lag of COVID-19 confirmed cases, apart from the other two independent variables (recovered and death), is a better-fitting model. This implies that the COVID-19 spreading in the neighbouring districts has a significant effect on the rate of confirmed cases in a particular district of Sarawak. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 causes a jarring impact on the livelihoods of people in Malaysia and globally. To prevent an outbreak in the community, identifying the likely sources of infection (hotspots) of COVID-19 is important. The goal of this study is to formulate a bipartite network model of COVID-19 transmissions by incorporating patient mobility data to address the assumption on population homogeneity made in the conventional models and focus on indirect transmission. Two types of nodes – human and location – are the main concern in the research scenario. 21 location nodes and 31 human nodes are identified from a patient’s pre-processed mobility data. The parameters used in this study for location node and human node quantifications are the ventilation rate of a location and the environmental properties of the location that affect the stability of the virus such as temperature and relative humidity. The summation rule is applied to quantify all nodes in the network and the link weight between the human node and the location node. The ranking of location and human nodes in this network is computed using a web search algorithm. This model is considered verified as the error obtained from the comparison made between the benchmark model and the COVID-19 bipartite network model is small. As a result, the higher ranking of the location is denoted as a hotspot in this study, and for a human node attached to this node will be ranked higher in the human node ranking. Consequently, the hotspot has a higher risk of transmission compared to other locations. These findings are proposed to provide a framework for public health authorities to identify the sources of infection and high-risk groups of people in the COVID-19 cases to control the transmission at the initial stage. © 2021 by the author(s).
ABSTRACT
Gathering to celebrate festivals is a common socio-cultural practice amongst Sarawak's diverse groups. For untold years, individuals, households, villages and at times the entire communities get together to observe their various religious, cultural and community festivals. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, the practice of gathering to celebrate those festivals became a challenging practice. This is because density of population and intensity of social contacts are deemed to increase SARS-CoV-2 high transmissibility. In this paper, we analyzed the trend of COVID-19 active cases in Sarawak in the first half of the year 2021 and calibrated the parameter signifying the proportion of exposed population taking effective precautionary measures,. in our model. Our findings suggest that after every festival celebration the value of. is decreased, leading to the increased number of active cases. In addition, the pre-festival mobility change involving visits to the retail and grocery stores are higher than any other time. Therefore, the festival gatherings and increased pre-festival mobility are catalysts that accelerated the increment of the number of active COVID-19 cases in Sarawak. In light of this, we proposed that any form of festival related gathering ought to be avoided in order to curb any forms of outbreak in Sarawak.
ABSTRACT
In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control Order (MCO). We study the direct effects of MCO on the course of epidemic by analyzing the cumulative and daily infection cases of COVID-19 up to 31 December 2020 in Malaysia and its states using piecewise linear regression and segment neighborhoods algorithm of change-point analysis, respectively. Through piecewise regression on nationwide cases, MCO were likely to almost flatten the epidemic curve in just one month after it was first initiated. While for stateswise cases, the average length of series of concave downward is six months before it turn to concave upward, indicating the period of which deceleration of new cases can be expected. However, the starting of this wave of COVID-19 can be relatively vary for three months in different states and federal territories. Together with change-point analysis on daily cases, the statewise epidemic phases could be subdivided into two to four regimes, whereby the majority of phase transitions fall in April and last quarter of 2020. Overall, the statistical modelling shows that the immediate effect of MCO appears to be effective.